Monday 3 March 2014

The Ukrainian Crisis

Ukraine: If Russia keeps to the Crimean, Ukraine will most likely accept the fait accompli, and see what concessions they can get in exchange. However, as Putin dreams of rebuilding the Russian-Soviet empire and the Russians never understood Ukraine’s wish for independence, they may go for Kharkov and Donetsk as well. If this happens it will be a de facto declaration of war and the Ukrainians will be forced to defend themselves; not that they stand a chance in the long run, but they can make the Russians pay a larger price in blood than the latter wish for. How the West will react to this is uncertain, but there will not be war between NATO and Russia, there is too much to lose should the situation escalate. And, the West will probably have to admit that- like the USSR during the Cuban Missile Crisis- they have stepped too far into the competitor’s back yard. For the Ukraine is very definitely in Russia’s back yard, and Putin made that clear already in 2008. All powers strive to be regional hegemons so as to maintain security; and Putin does not want the armies of traditional enemies such as the US, France, Poland and Germany with bases and free access to the Ukraine. In other words, there is not far for the panzers to roll from Kiev to Moscow. History very- very much determines security policies in great powers who pursue the Realist way. More likely, the West will accept Russian dominance of the Ukraine, even a limited war to get the eastern parts “heims in Reich”, but likely not a total occupation of the country. Something that is unlikely in any case, whereas a limited operation seems quite probable. Russia can live with a boycut in exchange for maintaining hegemony and demonstrating its willingness to back its friends. And a boycut will hurt the West as well, as gas and oil prices will soar. Now, some people say that the Cold War is flaring up again, this is not true. What we see now, is merely the manifestation of international politics of great powers; as was the Cold War, though the ideology of the two combatants supposedly made this special, they were also a means to an end. The situation is changed in that there are more powers playing now, and ideology does not matter as much (except nationalism in Russia and the Ukraine), but we are merely seeing manifestations of great power international politics, just as we see it in N. Korea and the East China Sea. And it will not very likely lead to WWIII.

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